Why Maharashtra is six elections, not one

With poll dates announced, the Maha Vikas Aghadi and the Mahayuti are scrambling to finalise the tricky seat distribution in the battle for Maharashtra, a state bigger than Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, and Jharkhand combined and sending 48 Members of Parliament to the Lok Sabha, the second highest. It comprises six regions with varied demographics, dynamics, and issues. This is what makes the upcoming polls six elections in one.
The six regions are Vidarbha, with 62 seats, Marathwada, with 46, Western Maharashtra, with 70, Thane-Konkan, with 39, Mumbai, with 36, and North Maharashtra, with 35 seats. None of the parties in Maharashtra can claim to be a pan-state party with pockets of influence in a few regions. And no single party in Maharashtra has crossed the halfway mark on its own in the last forty years.
2014 state elections: No alliances
In the 2014 Assembly elections, the four main parties — the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Congress, the Shiv Sena (undivided) and the Nationalist Congress Party (undivided) — contested separately, resulting in a hung Assembly and the BJP emerging as the single-largest party. The saffron party won 122 seats, the Sena 63, the Congress 42, the NCP 41, and others 20. After 15 years of the United Progressive Alliance (Congress+NCP) rule, there was high anti-incumbency.
The BJP and the Sena joined hands post-poll to form the government. But during the elections, there were BJP-versus-Sena fights in three regions: Thane-Konkan, Mumbai, and Marathwada. In Vidarbha and North Maharashtra, it was a BJP-versus-Congress contest. And in Western Maharashtra, it was a BJP-versus-NCP fight.
The BJP led in all the regions except Thane-Konkan, where the Shiv Sena edged it out 14-10. Even in Mumbai, it was a close fight between the BJP (15) and the Sena (14). In Vidarbha, the BJP led 44–10 seats against the Congress; and 14-7 in North Maharashtra. In Western Maharashtra, the BJP led 24-19 against the NCP, and in Marathwada, 15-11 against the Sena.
In terms of vote share, the BJP led in four zones: Vidarbha, North Maharashtra, Mumbai, and Marathwada. The Sena led in Thane-Konkan, while the NCP led in Western Maharashtra despite lagging in the seats tally.
2019 was a traditional UPA vs NDA fight
In 2019, traditional rivals BJP and the Shiv Sena (the National Democratic Alliance – NDA) joined hands to fight the Congress and the NCP (United Progressive Alliance – UPA). The NDA won 161 seats (BJP 105, Sena 56) and the UPA bagged 98 (Congress 44, NCP 54). The NDA led in all zones except Western Maharashtra where Sharad Pawar’s spirited campaign pulled the odds in their favour.
The BJP alone led in four zones, the NCP in one, and the Sena in one (Thane-Konkan). Despite leading in Vidarbha (29-10 versus the Congress), the BJP suffered heavy losses due to agricultural distress, farmer suicides, and factionalism — the main reason for the BJP’s tally declining from 122 to 105 seats. In terms of vote share, the BJP’s lead was reduced from 13 per cent against the Congress to seven per cent in Vidarbha.

Seat tally of Maharashtra 2019 Assembly polls

The NDA led against the UPA 33-21 in Vidarbha, 28-16 in Marathwada, and 19-12 in North Maharashtra. It swept the Thane-Konkan region 26-5, and the Mumbai region 30-5. The UPA led 39-25 in Western Maharashtra.
In terms of vote share, BJP led in four zones: Vidarbha, North Maharashtra, Mumbai, and Marathwada. The Sena led in Thane-Konkan and the NCP in Western Maharashtra. The NDA led against the UPA in vote share terms across all six zones, including Western Maharashtra, despite lagging in the seats tally. The NDA’s biggest lead was in Thane-Konkan and Mumbai (28-29 per cent) while the lowest was in Western Maharashtra (three per cent).

Vote share between parties in 2019 Maharashtra Assembly polls

The Shiv Sena joined hands with the NCP and the Congress post-polls, forming the government, and creating the MVA. In the middle of the term, however, Eknath Shinde led a revolt in the Sena forming the government with the BJP. A year later, Ajit Pawar led a revolt in the NCP and joined the NDA, creating the Mahayuti.
2024 general elections: Asli vs Nakli
In the first test of new alliances in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the MVA trumped Mahayuti 30-17. Both alliances bagged around 44 per cent of the vote share each with the MVA marginally ahead. In terms of Assembly segments though, the contest was closer with the MVA leading in 153 seats (Congress 63, Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasahed Thackeray 57, the Nationalist Congress Party-Sharadchandra Pawar 33) and the Mahayuti in 126 (the BJP 79, the Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde in 40, the Nationalist Congress Party-Ajit Pawar in six, and the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha in one), 145 being the majority mark.

Regions where parties have a strong influence in Maharashtra

The BJP alone led in the highest number of Assembly segments in North Maharashtra (20 of 35 seats). The Congress party led in Vidarbha and Marathwada, The Shiv Sena (UBT) in Mumbai, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) in Thane-Konkan, and NCP (SP) in Western Maharashtra.
The MVA led in all zones except Thane-Konkan and North Maharashtra. The Congress trounced the BJP in Vidarbha, leading in 29 of 62 seats, riding on agricultural distress, unemployment, price rise, anti-incumbency, non-performance of the BJP MPs, and factionalism (Niin Gadkari vs Devendra Fadnavis camps) forming a Dalit-Muslim-Maratha-Kunbi coalition. The MVA led in 42 seats and the Mahayuti by just 19.
In Marathwada, there was Maratha anger over the non-fulfillment of the demand for reservations. This resulted in the MVA leading in 32 of the 46 seats. A spirited performance by the NCP(SP) and the lack of a seamless transfer of votes between the BJP/Shiv Sena (Shinde) to the NCP (Ajit Pawar) cost the Mahayuti dearly as it trailed 35-30 in Western Maharashtra. A quarter of undivided NCP votes came from Muslims and this did not shift to the Ajit Pawar faction as he allied with the BJP.
In Mumbai, Uddhav Thackeray held his fort in a close contest, with the MVA leading 20-16 against the Mahayuti. Supporters of Sena patriarch Balasaheb Thackeray largely stayed with Uddhav. However, in Thane-Konkan, Shinde trumped Uddhav, showcasing his hold on the region, with the Mahayuti leading 27-11 against the MVA.
In North Maharashtra, the BJP held its ground and the Mahayuti led 22-13 against the MVA. The BJP led in 20 of these seats. Support of Other Backward Classes and Scheduled Tribes likely tilted the scale in its favour.
In terms of vote share, the MVA and the Mahayuti led in three regions each; the former in Vidarbha, Marathwada, and Western Maharashtra, and the latter in North Maharashtra, Thane-Konkan, and Mumbai.
Overall, just like Haryana, the vote share in Maharashtra is a misleading metric. Statewide, the vote share was almost the same for both alliances, but the MVA was ahead as it led in three of the biggest zones — Western Maharashtra, Vidarbha, and Marathwada — accounting for 62 per cent of total Assembly seats.
Battles within battles
Vidarbha could see a direct BJP-versus-Congress contest this time. Historically, a Congress stronghold, Vidarbha witnessed close contests between the BJP and Congress from 1999 to 2009. The BJP overtook Congress in the region on the back of the Narendra Modi wave in 2014. The grand old party made a comeback in the 2024 general elections. Agrarian issues could dominate this drought-prone region that’s a hotbed of farmer suicides.
Marathwada could witness a Congress and Sena (UBT)-versus-BJP and Sena (Shinde) battle. The Maratha agitation and rural distress/unemployment would dominate discourse with the BJP aiming at a reverse OBC consolidation. North Maharashtra could see a battle between the MVA and Mahayuti as all six parties have pockets of influence with BJP leading the battle from the Mahayuti side as it is its stronghold. Tribal issues could dominate here as it houses the state’s highest ST population.
Western Maharashtra could see a BJP and NCP (Ajit Pawar)-versus-Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar) battle. The region has long been dominated by the Congress and Pawars. With Ajit Pawar on its side, the BJP hopes to make big gains here. However, in the general elections, Ajit Pawar’s wife lost to Supriya Sule from Baramati.
Thane-Konkan could see a battle between the BJP-Sena (Shinde) and the Sena (UBT). The region was a stronghold of the undivided Shiv Sena. Post the split, Eknath Shinde, who hails from this region, yields considerable clout. The Shinde faction defeated the Uddhav faction in two head-to-head contests in the Kalyan and Thane Lok Sabha seats. Development and infra focus could dominate discourse here like in Mumbai.
Mumbai was a stronghold of Balasaheb Thackeray and his family. The Congress and the BJP also have a strong presence in the region — the NCP does not. Of the three direct fights between the Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray factions, the Sena (UBT) won two, losing the third by just 48 votes. In rural Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha, North Maharashtra, and parts of Western Maharashtra, the Ladki Bahin Yojana could also have an impact on the poll outcome.
To sum up, despite the MVA’s solid performance in the general elections in 2024, political pundits are shying away from making predictions after the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir verdict.